Tarih:
Konum: A 226
UNCERTAINTY, HAZARD, VULNERABILITY AND RISK FROM A CIVIL ENGINEERING POINT OF VIEW
M. Semih YÜCEMEN
Department of Civil Engineering andEarthquake Studies Program
Middle East Technical University, 06800 Ankara, Turkey
ABSTRACT
In this presentation the basic concepts and elements of quantitative risk assessment will be discussed, with particular emphasis on different types of uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic), hazard, identification of elements at risk, vulnerability, measuring risk using reliability theory and risk management. Three examples where the hazard is due to earthquakes will be presented. The first two examples, namely the seismic zoning map of Turkey and assessment of seismic hazard for CO2 and natural gas transporting pipeline systems located in seismically active regions, will be short presentations. The last example, which deals with the probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance premium rates for a highway system, is a detailed case study covering all aspects of a full risk analysis and is based on real life data.